V-Lab
YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
43.66%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
43.67%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
43.73%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 221 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~221 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7850 | 3.73*** |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9969 | 1.10 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.0974 | -0.04 |
0.997
Persistence221d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7850 | 3.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9969 | 1.10 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.0974 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
221 days
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