YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
42.53%
increased by 0.54%
1 Week
41.73%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
41.57%
decreased by 0.42%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7778 | 6.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.0322 | 0.77 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.6039 | -1.37 |
0.032
Persistence0d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7778 | 6.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0322 | 0.77 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.6039 | -1.37 |
Persistence:
0.032
Half-life:
0 days
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