V-Lab
YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
41.65%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
41.75%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
41.77%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7549 | 5.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.0090 | 0.26 |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.8731 | -1.32 |
0.009
Persistence0d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7549 | 5.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0090 | 0.26 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.8731 | -1.32 |
Persistence:
0.009
Half-life:
0 days
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