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V-Lab
V-Lab

YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

43.66%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

43.67%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

43.73%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 221 trading days (~0.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~221 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7850
3.73***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9969
1.10
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.0974
-0.04

0.997

Persistence

221d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7850
3.73***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9969
1.10
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.0974
-0.04

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

221 days