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V-Lab

YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

41.65%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

41.75%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

41.77%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

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graph of YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7549
5.50***
αARCH0.0090
0.26
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.8731
-1.32

0.009

Persistence

0d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7549
5.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0090
0.26
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.8731
-1.32

Persistence:

0.009

Half-life:

0 days