Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

50.05%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

50.05%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

50.05%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7811
4.44***
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.0893
0.04
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.6482
0.32

0.089

Persistence

0d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7811
4.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0893
0.04
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.6482
0.32

Persistence:

0.089

Half-life:

0 days