V-Lab
Vanguard CDN AGG BD IDX ETF Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
4.33%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
4.31%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
4.25%
decreased by 0.25%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2011 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8236 | 5.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0803 | 3.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8618 | 34.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0219 | -0.95 |
| γ2 | 0.0736 | 2.22** |
| γ3 | -0.1534 | -4.75*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
Other Vanguard CDN AGG BD IDX ETF Analyses
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs