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V-Lab

Vanguard CDN AGG BD IDX ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

5.16%

increased by 0.28%

1 Week

5.17%

increased by 0.29%

1 Month

5.19%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:37 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Vanguard CDN AGG BD IDX ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2011 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 57 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 57 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1154
14.26***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0550
27.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9880
930.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.8069
4.70***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

57 days