V-Lab
Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
2.15%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
2.15%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
2.15%
decreased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:28 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.91 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~87 daysv = 7.91 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0190 | 1.25 |
| αARCH | 0.0560 | 1.41 |
| βGARCH | 0.9921 | 84.25*** |
| νDF | 7.9059 | 0.30 |
0.992
Persistence87d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0190 | 1.25 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0560 | 1.41 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9921 | 84.25*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9059 | 0.30 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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