Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
3.07%
1 Week
3.05%
1 Month
3.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 88 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.0199 | 1.09 |
| αscore | 0.0515 | 2.21** |
| βpersistence | 0.9922 | 107.34*** |
| νDF | 7.3266 | 0.37 |
0.992
Persistence88d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.0199 | 1.09 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0515 | 2.21** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9922 | 107.34*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3266 | 0.37 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
88 days
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