V-Lab
Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
2.43%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
2.43%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
2.42%
decreased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:19 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.38 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0199 | 5.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0573 | 4.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9926 | 246.25*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3772 | 1.15 |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
94 days
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