Skip to main content
V-Lab

Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

2.28%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

2.27%

decreased by 0.11%

1 Month

2.27%

decreased by 0.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 1, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0191
4.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0589
4.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9913
265.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2162
1.33

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days