V-Lab
Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
2.21%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
2.21%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
2.20%
decreased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~83 daysv = 8.22 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0171 | 1.23 |
| αARCH | 0.0511 | 1.36 |
| βGARCH | 0.9917 | 85.67*** |
| νDF | 8.2209 | 0.28 |
0.992
Persistence83d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0171 | 1.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0511 | 1.36 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9917 | 85.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.2209 | 0.28 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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