Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
1.98%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
1.98%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
1.98%
increased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 daysv = 8.53 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0161 | 1.19 |
| αARCH | 0.0506 | 1.49 |
| βGARCH | 0.9904 | 99.02*** |
| νDF | 8.5321 | 0.27 |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0161 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0506 | 1.49 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9904 | 99.02*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.5321 | 0.27 |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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