V-Lab
Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
2.28%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
2.27%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
2.27%
decreased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0191 | 4.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0589 | 4.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9913 | 265.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2162 | 1.33 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
Other Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs