V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long GLW Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
150.86%
increased by 10.65%
1 Week
153.23%
increased by 13.02%
1 Month
158.63%
increased by 18.42%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 18.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 18.39 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 108.0949 | 2.08** |
| αARCH | 0.0694 | 0.35 |
| βGARCH | 0.9120 | 6.15*** |
| νDF | 18.3904 | 0.03 |
0.912
Persistence8d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 108.0949 | 2.08** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0694 | 0.35 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9120 | 6.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 18.3904 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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