V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long GLW Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
149.21%
increased by 4.11%
1 Week
152.18%
increased by 7.08%
1 Month
159.20%
increased by 14.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifev = 6.18 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 112.4643 | 0.57 |
| αARCH | 0.0547 | 0.27 |
| βGARCH | 0.9203 | 2.74*** |
| νDF | 6.1790 | 0.07 |
0.920
Persistence8d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 112.4643 | 0.57 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0547 | 0.27 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9203 | 2.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1790 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.920
Half-life:
8 days
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