V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long GLW Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
172.25%
decreased by 7.85%
1 Week
171.03%
decreased by 9.07%
1 Month
168.00%
decreased by 12.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 22.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 22.15 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 106.2804 | 2.39** |
| αARCH | 0.0631 | 0.34 |
| βGARCH | 0.9219 | 7.39*** |
| νDF | 22.1477 | 0.02 |
0.922
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 106.2804 | 2.39** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0631 | 0.34 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9219 | 7.39*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 22.1477 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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