Leverage Shares 2X Long GLW Daily ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
153.10%
decreased by 4.24%
1 Week
154.71%
decreased by 2.63%
1 Month
158.72%
increased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-lifev = 8.61 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 107.5378 | 0.97 |
| αARCH | 0.0451 | 0.27 |
| βGARCH | 0.9274 | 4.67*** |
| νDF | 8.6056 | 0.05 |
0.927
Persistence9d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 107.5378 | 0.97 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0451 | 0.27 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9274 | 4.67*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6056 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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