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Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

26.09%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

26.26%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

26.52%

decreased by 0.27%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 27.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 27.06 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8264
3.58***
αARCH0.0559
0.30
βGARCH0.8325
3.14***
νDF27.0635
0.02

0.833

Persistence

4d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8264
3.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0559
0.30
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8325
3.14***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

27.0635
0.02

Persistence:

0.833

Half-life:

4 days