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Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

24.49%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Week

24.86%

decreased by 0.52%

1 Month

25.56%

increased by 0.18%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:20 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 16.03 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 16.03 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.7115
2.26**
αARCH0.0667
0.39
βGARCH0.8757
5.52***
νDF16.0290
0.04

0.876

Persistence

5d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7115
2.26**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0667
0.39
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8757
5.52***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

16.0290
0.04

Persistence:

0.876

Half-life:

5 days