V-Lab
Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
26.50%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
26.50%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
26.50%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 25.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-lifev = 25.45 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7860 | 0.02 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9816 | 0.04 |
| νDF | 25.4503 | 0.01 |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7860 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9816 | 0.04 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 25.4503 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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