V-Lab
Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
27.03%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
27.03%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
27.03%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Hessian SE
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 43.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-lifev = 43.80 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.9002 | 0.12 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9796 | 0.13 |
| νDF | 43.7953 | 0.00 |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9002 | 0.12 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9796 | 0.13 |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 43.7953 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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