V-Lab
Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
26.09%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
26.26%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
26.52%
decreased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 27.06 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-lifev = 27.06 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8264 | 3.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.0559 | 0.30 |
| βGARCH | 0.8325 | 3.14*** |
| νDF | 27.0635 | 0.02 |
0.833
Persistence4d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8264 | 3.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0559 | 0.30 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8325 | 3.14*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 27.0635 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.833
Half-life:
4 days
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