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V-Lab

Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

27.03%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

27.03%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

27.03%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:17 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026
Hessian SE

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 43.80 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-lifev = 43.80 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.9002
0.12
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9796
0.13
νDF43.7953
0.00

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9002
0.12
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9796
0.13
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

43.7953
0.00

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days