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Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

31.55%

increased by 2.11%

1 Week

30.76%

increased by 1.32%

1 Month

29.02%

decreased by 0.42%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 03:17 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.85 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 6-day half-lifev = 8.85 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.9163
0.78
αscore0.0575
0.25
βpersistence0.8962
5.24***
νDF8.8521
0.05

0.896

Persistence

6d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.9163
0.78
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0575
0.25
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.8962
5.24***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.8521
0.05

Persistence:

0.896

Half-life:

6 days