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Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

26.50%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

26.50%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

26.50%

unchanged at 0.00%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC

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Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 37 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 37 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 25.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 37-day half-lifev = 25.45 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.7860
0.02
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9816
0.04
νDF25.4503
0.01

0.982

Persistence

37d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7860
0.02
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9816
0.04
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

25.4503
0.01

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days