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Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

31.24%

increased by 2.81%

1 Week

34.02%

increased by 5.59%

1 Month

43.41%

increased by 14.98%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 02:16 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Twin Oak Strategic Solutions ETF APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 6, 2026 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3497
0.72
αARCH0.1816
1.51
βGARCH0.8184
9.97***
γleverage0.0910
0.27
δpower1.9780
1.71*

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3497
0.72
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1816
1.51
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8184
9.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0910
0.27
δ

power

Transformation power

1.9780
1.71*

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-