V-Lab
Global X Active Global Fixed Income ETF Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
8.61%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
8.95%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
10.13%
increased by 1.24%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 21, 2009 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 17% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.35 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0218 | 11.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1242 | 17.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8745 | 129.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0584 | 2.56** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3488 | 14.19*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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