V-Lab
Global X Active Global Fixed Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
6.83%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Week
7.25%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
7.64%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 09:34 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 21, 2009 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1838 | 6.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2635 | 7.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4632 | 7.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.7363 | 2.33** |
| γ2 | -0.8354 | -1.55 |
| γ3 | 0.6185 | 1.53 |
| γ4 | -1.4207 | -4.49*** |
| γ5 | 1.7832 | 6.39*** |
| γ6 | -1.2751 | -4.37*** |
| γ7 | 0.3541 | 1.14 |
| γ8 | 0.0952 | 0.37 |
| γ9 | -0.0317 | -0.20 |
Persistence:
0.727
Half-life:
2 days
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