Direxion Daily ORCL Bull 2X ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 15th, 2026
1 Day
123.12%
decreased by 4.42%
1 Week
122.36%
decreased by 5.18%
1 Month
121.91%
decreased by 5.63%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 09:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 19, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9665 | 3.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0657 | 0.73 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5097 | 0.48 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2148 | -0.16 |
Persistence:
0.575
Half-life:
1 days
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