V-Lab
iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
19.41%
increased by 1.47%
1 Week
19.65%
increased by 1.71%
1 Month
20.28%
increased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3157 | 4.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.1074 | 5.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8350 | 42.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0477 | 0.94 |
| γ2 | -0.1102 | -1.50 |
| γ3 | 0.1871 | 4.03*** |
| γ4 | -0.2350 | -6.22*** |
| γ5 | 0.1287 | 3.63*** |
| γ6 | -0.0005 | -0.01 |
| γ7 | -0.0131 | -0.30 |
| γ8 | -0.0100 | -0.31 |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3157 | 4.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1074 | 5.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8350 | 42.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0477 | 0.94 |
| γ2 | -0.1102 | -1.50 |
| γ3 | 0.1871 | 4.03*** |
| γ4 | -0.2350 | -6.22*** |
| γ5 | 0.1287 | 3.63*** |
| γ6 | -0.0005 | -0.01 |
| γ7 | -0.0131 | -0.30 |
| γ8 | -0.0100 | -0.31 |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
Other iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on ETFs