V-Lab
iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
20.43%
increased by 0.91%
1 Week
20.61%
increased by 1.09%
1 Month
21.09%
increased by 1.57%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3138 | 4.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1063 | 5.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8361 | 41.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0519 | 1.01 |
| γ2 | -0.1185 | -1.60 |
| γ3 | 0.1943 | 4.18*** |
| γ4 | -0.2384 | -6.29*** |
| γ5 | 0.1280 | 3.53*** |
| γ6 | -0.0012 | -0.03 |
| γ7 | -0.0065 | -0.14 |
| γ8 | -0.0178 | -0.54 |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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