iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
17.07%
increased by 0.98%
1 Week
17.64%
increased by 1.55%
1 Month
19.12%
increased by 3.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3237 | 4.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1059 | 5.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8367 | 42.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0525 | 1.03 |
| γ2 | -0.1189 | -1.61 |
| γ3 | 0.1941 | 4.17*** |
| γ4 | -0.2376 | -6.25*** |
| γ5 | 0.1263 | 3.46*** |
| γ6 | 0.0003 | 0.01 |
| γ7 | -0.0073 | -0.16 |
| γ8 | -0.0171 | -0.52 |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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