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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

21.14%

increased by 1.21%

1 Week

21.30%

increased by 1.37%

1 Month

21.90%

increased by 1.97%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.26 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8503
7.06***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0808
31.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9869
539.00***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2586
5.86***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days