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iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

18.80%

decreased by 1.08%

1 Week

19.05%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Month

19.95%

increased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 10:51 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 56 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 56 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.93 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 56-day half-lifev = 7.93 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.9770
1.77*
αscore0.0846
7.80***
βpersistence0.9876
140.17***
νDF7.9281
1.37

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.9770
1.77*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0846
7.80***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9876
140.17***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9281
1.37

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days