V-Lab
iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
19.35%
increased by 1.71%
1 Week
19.58%
increased by 1.94%
1 Month
20.40%
increased by 2.76%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifev = 7.25 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8407 | 1.77* |
| αARCH | 0.0817 | 7.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9867 | 133.78*** |
| νDF | 7.2530 | 1.48 |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8407 | 1.77* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0817 | 7.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9867 | 133.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2530 | 1.48 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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