V-Lab
iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
14.59%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Week
15.03%
increased by 0.15%
1 Month
16.55%
increased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8421 | 7.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0815 | 31.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9868 | 535.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2325 | 5.93*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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