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iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

19.35%

increased by 1.71%

1 Week

19.58%

increased by 1.94%

1 Month

20.40%

increased by 2.76%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifev = 7.25 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8407
1.77*
αARCH0.0817
7.73***
βGARCH0.9867
133.78***
νDF7.2530
1.48

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8407
1.77*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0817
7.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9867
133.78***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2530
1.48

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days