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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

14.59%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Week

15.03%

increased by 0.15%

1 Month

16.55%

increased by 1.67%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8421
7.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0815
31.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9868
535.16***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2325
5.93***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days