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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

15.06%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

15.80%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

17.83%

increased by 2.53%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 271% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

101
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0385
9.85***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8661
274.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1044
20.43***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0092
8.25***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0191
8.08***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9771
355.70***

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days