V-Lab
iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.22%
increased by 2.25%
1 Week
20.37%
increased by 2.40%
1 Month
20.79%
increased by 2.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 271% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 271% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 101 | |
| αARCH | 0.0386 | 2.11** |
| βGARCH | 0.8664 | 67.82*** |
| γleverage | 0.1043 | 5.82*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0090 | 1.16 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0188 | 1.80* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9774 | 77.30*** |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0386 | 2.11** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8664 | 67.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1043 | 5.82*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0090 | 1.16 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0188 | 1.80* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9774 | 77.30*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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