V-Lab
iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
15.06%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
15.80%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
17.83%
increased by 2.53%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 271% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0385 | 9.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8661 | 274.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1044 | 20.43*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0092 | 8.25*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0191 | 8.08*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9771 | 355.70*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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