V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long ONDS Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
79.69%
1 Week
80.52%
1 Month
70.48%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 161% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 36 | |
| αARCH | 0.2608 | 39.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
| γleverage | -0.1610 | -25.83*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0914 | 106.25*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7561 | 121.70*** |
0.180
Persistence0d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2608 | 39.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1610 | -25.83*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0914 | 106.25*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7561 | 121.70*** |
Persistence:
0.180
Half-life:
0 days
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