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Leverage Shares 2X Long ONDS Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

79.69%

increased by 2.26%

1 Week

80.52%

increased by 3.09%

1 Month

70.48%

decreased by 6.95%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

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graph of Leverage Shares 2X Long ONDS Daily ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 13, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 161% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 161% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow36
αARCH0.2608
39.66***
βGARCH0.0000
0.01
γleverage-0.1610
-25.83***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.00
λ₂forecast adj.0.0914
106.25***
λ₃tau persistence0.7561
121.70***

0.180

Persistence

0d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

36
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2608
39.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.01
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1610
-25.83***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0914
106.25***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7561
121.70***

Persistence:

0.180

Half-life:

0 days