Leverage Shares 2X Long ONDS Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
129.13%
1 Week
131.27%
1 Month
131.69%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0809 | 10.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | -0.0809 | -27.31*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 1.24 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8550 | 10.02*** |
0.040
Persistence0d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0809 | 10.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0809 | -27.31*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 1.24 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8550 | 10.02*** |
Persistence:
0.040
Half-life:
0 days
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