Leverage Shares 2X Long ONDS Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
358.44%
1 Week
450.66%
1 Month
1,552.12%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 343 trading days (~1.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.09 |
| βGARCH | 0.7504 | 245.79*** |
| γleverage | 0.4951 | 71.04*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 160.31*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 1.0000 | 48.07*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
0.998
Persistence343d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.09 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7504 | 245.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4951 | 71.04*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 160.31*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 1.0000 | 48.07*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
343 days
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