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V-Lab

Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

143.98%

increased by 58.83%

1 Week

152.43%

increased by 67.28%

1 Month

161.34%

increased by 76.19%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 12, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow26
αARCH1.0000
4.52***
βGARCH0.0087
1.40
γleverage-0.5000
-1.39
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
5.66***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.9078
54.92***

0.759

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

1.0000
4.52***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0087
1.40
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-1.39
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
5.66***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9078
54.92***

Persistence:

0.759

Half-life:

3 days