Grayscale Avalanche Staking ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
143.98%
increased by 58.83%
1 Week
152.43%
increased by 67.28%
1 Month
161.34%
increased by 76.19%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 12, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 26 | |
| αARCH | 1.0000 | 4.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0087 | 1.40 |
| γleverage | -0.5000 | -1.39 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 5.66*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9078 | 54.92*** |
0.759
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 26 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 1.0000 | 4.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0087 | 1.40 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5000 | -1.39 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 5.66*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9078 | 54.92*** |
Persistence:
0.759
Half-life:
3 days
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