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V-Lab

SPDR Gold Shares MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

24.45%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

24.36%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Month

24.12%

decreased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:29 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SPDR Gold Shares MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow111
αARCH0.0805
4.82***
βGARCH0.9131
50.89***
γleverage-0.0310
-1.72*
λ₁tau intercept0.0063
0.88
λ₂forecast adj.0.0219
1.57
λ₃tau persistence0.9736
52.60***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

111
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0805
4.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9131
50.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0310
-1.72*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0063
0.88
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0219
1.57
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9736
52.60***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days