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V-Lab

SPDR Gold Shares MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

21.49%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

21.55%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Month

21.79%

decreased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SPDR Gold Shares MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2004 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow111
αARCH0.0799
4.81***
βGARCH0.9137
51.07***
γleverage-0.0310
-1.73*
λ₁tau intercept0.0063
0.89
λ₂forecast adj.0.0223
1.58
λ₃tau persistence0.9732
52.45***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

111
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0799
4.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9137
51.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0310
-1.73*
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0063
0.89
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0223
1.58
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9732
52.45***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days