V-Lab
SPDR Gold Shares MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
24.45%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
24.36%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Month
24.12%
decreased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 111 | |
| αARCH | 0.0805 | 4.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9131 | 50.89*** |
| γleverage | -0.0310 | -1.72* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0063 | 0.88 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0219 | 1.57 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9736 | 52.60*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 111 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0805 | 4.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9131 | 50.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0310 | -1.72* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0063 | 0.88 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0219 | 1.57 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9736 | 52.60*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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