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V-Lab
V-Lab

SPDR Gold Shares AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

23.76%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

23.66%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Month

23.30%

decreased by 1.16%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:48 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SPDR Gold Shares AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2004 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0094
1.86*
αARCH0.0557
4.34***
βGARCH0.9348
71.98***
γleverage-0.2307
-1.86*

0.990

Persistence

72d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0094
1.86*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0557
4.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9348
71.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2307
-1.86*

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

72 days