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V-Lab

SPDR Gold Shares Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

23.84%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

23.77%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Month

23.50%

decreased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SPDR Gold Shares AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 38% more than negative returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0127
17.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1144
25.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8926
335.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0312
-4.90***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

80 days