V-Lab
SPDR Gold Shares Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
23.84%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
23.77%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Month
23.50%
decreased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2004 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 38% more than negative returns
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0127 | 17.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1144 | 25.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8926 | 335.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0312 | -4.90*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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