SPDR Gold Shares MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
17.92%
increased by 0.01%
1 Week
17.94%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
18.01%
increased by 0.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0146 | 1.45 |
| αARCH | 0.1023 | 7.45*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8872 | 80.35*** |
0.990
Persistence66d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0146 | 1.45 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1023 | 7.45*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8872 | 80.35*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
66 days
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