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V-Lab
V-Lab

SPDR Gold Shares MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

17.92%

increased by 0.01%

1 Week

17.94%

increased by 0.03%

1 Month

18.01%

increased by 0.10%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:45 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of SPDR Gold Shares MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2004 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 66 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 66 days.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 66-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0146
1.45
αARCH0.1023
7.45***
βGARCH0.8872
80.35***

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0146
1.45
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1023
7.45***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8872
80.35***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days