Invesco DB Agriculture Fund MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
11.69%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
11.76%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
12.02%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~99 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0071 | 1.56 |
| αARCH | 0.1143 | 8.86*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8787 | 81.18*** |
0.993
Persistence99d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0071 | 1.56 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1143 | 8.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8787 | 81.18*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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