V-Lab
iShares MSCI Canada ETF MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
12.66%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Week
13.03%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
14.37%
increased by 1.34%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 10, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 16, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
MEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0258 | 1.54 |
| αARCH | 0.1617 | 8.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8285 | 57.79*** |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0258 | 1.54 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1617 | 8.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8285 | 57.79*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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