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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Canada ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

12.09%

increased by 0.68%

1 Week

12.31%

increased by 0.90%

1 Month

13.09%

increased by 1.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Canada ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8875
6.69***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0734
38.05***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9920
815.79***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.3548
5.58***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

86 days