V-Lab
iShares MSCI Canada ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
13.89%
increased by 0.52%
1 Week
14.05%
increased by 0.68%
1 Month
14.65%
increased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8929 | 6.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0736 | 37.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9919 | 809.09*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3507 | 5.57*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
Other iShares MSCI Canada ETF Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on ETFs