V-Lab
iShares MSCI Canada ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.26%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
12.47%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
13.23%
increased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8922 | 6.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0733 | 37.89*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9920 | 807.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3141 | 5.59*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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