V-Lab
iShares MSCI Canada ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.29%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
14.44%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Month
15.00%
increased by 0.15%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~86 daysv = 8.39 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8864 | 1.69* |
| αARCH | 0.0736 | 9.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9919 | 204.14*** |
| νDF | 8.3874 | 1.39 |
0.992
Persistence86d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8864 | 1.69* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0736 | 9.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9919 | 204.14*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3874 | 1.39 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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