V-Lab
iShares MSCI Canada ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
13.46%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
13.57%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Month
13.85%
decreased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8249 | 163.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1742 | 38.24*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0062 | 4.82*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0519 | 5.88*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9450 | 100.68*** |
Persistence:
0.912
Half-life:
8 days
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