V-Lab
iShares MSCI Canada ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.22%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
13.36%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Month
13.96%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8252 | 46.73*** |
| γleverage | 0.1750 | 9.41*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0060 | 1.58 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0507 | 3.22*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9462 | 55.22*** |
0.913
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8252 | 46.73*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1750 | 9.41*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0060 | 1.58 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0507 | 3.22*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9462 | 55.22*** |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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