Leverage Shares 2X Long ECHO Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
46.02%
1 Week
90.27%
1 Month
3,916.81%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2025 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 101 | |
| αARCH | 0.1997 | 20.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8952 | 378.83*** |
| γleverage | -0.1997 | -19.66*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3194 | 5.21*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.1950 | 89.06*** |
0.995
Persistence138d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1997 | 20.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8952 | 378.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1997 | -19.66*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3194 | 5.21*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1950 | 89.06*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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