V-Lab
Leverage Shares 2X Long ECHO Daily ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.76%
1 Week
16.20%
1 Month
184.25%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 16, 2025 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 267% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0936 | 5.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7812 | 172.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2504 | 21.02*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0017 | 0.26 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0008 | 1.11 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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