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First Eagle US Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

5.38%

increased by 1.60%

1 Week

3.64%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

1.93%

decreased by 1.85%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 at 02:32 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

All

graph of First Eagle US Equity ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 27, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow51
αARCH0.0105
βGARCH0.3401
γleverage0.3908
λ₁tau intercept0.0016
λ₂forecast adj.0.0026
λ₃tau persistence0.0286

0.546

Persistence

1d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0105
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3401
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3908
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0016
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0026
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0286

Persistence:

0.546

Half-life:

1 days