V-Lab
First Eagle US Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
22.13%
1 Week
24.60%
1 Month
35.54%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 27, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 444 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3733 | 48.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8118 | 901.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3733 | -26.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 2.01** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1242 | 2.58*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8758 | 10.76*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
444 days
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