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V-Lab

First Eagle US Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

22.13%

increased by 2.22%

1 Week

24.60%

increased by 4.69%

1 Month

35.54%

increased by 15.63%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of First Eagle US Equity ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 27, 2026 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 444 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3733
48.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8118
901.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3733
-26.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
2.01**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1242
2.58***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8758
10.76***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

444 days