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V-Lab

First Eagle US Equity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

7.00%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

54.81%

increased by 47.72%

1 Month

1,414,486.48%

increased by 1,414,479.39%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:35 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of First Eagle US Equity ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 27, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

26
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9782
230.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0436
0.09
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.00
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3793
0.09
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0008
0.08

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-