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V-Lab

State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

18.16%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Week

18.30%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Month

18.74%

decreased by 0.03%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8995
315.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1418
38.68***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0070
7.54***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0193
4.76***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9757
205.58***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days