V-Lab
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
18.16%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
18.30%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
18.74%
decreased by 0.03%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8995 | 315.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1418 | 38.68*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0070 | 7.54*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0193 | 4.76*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9757 | 205.58*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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