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State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

27.45%

decreased by 1.29%

1 Week

27.03%

decreased by 1.71%

1 Month

25.69%

decreased by 3.05%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.8999
92.97***
γleverage0.1413
10.45***
λ₁tau intercept0.0068
1.12
λ₂forecast adj.0.0183
1.52
λ₃tau persistence0.9768
61.76***

0.971

Persistence

23d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8999
92.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1413
10.45***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0068
1.12
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0183
1.52
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9768
61.76***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days