V-Lab
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
16.99%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
17.03%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
17.16%
decreased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7530 | 5.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0968 | 8.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8649 | 57.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2109 | -4.43*** |
| γ2 | 0.3558 | 5.12*** |
| γ3 | -0.2300 | -5.05*** |
| γ4 | 0.1023 | 2.40** |
| γ5 | 0.0168 | 0.39 |
| γ6 | -0.0667 | -1.54 |
| γ7 | 0.0424 | 1.40 |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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