V-Lab
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
13.27%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
13.59%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
14.56%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7657 | 5.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.0965 | 8.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8646 | 57.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2058 | -4.44*** |
| γ2 | 0.3493 | 5.17*** |
| γ3 | -0.2294 | -5.18*** |
| γ4 | 0.1047 | 2.53** |
| γ5 | 0.0144 | 0.34 |
| γ6 | -0.0677 | -1.60 |
| γ7 | 0.0454 | 1.53 |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7657 | 5.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0965 | 8.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8646 | 57.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2058 | -4.44*** |
| γ2 | 0.3493 | 5.17*** |
| γ3 | -0.2294 | -5.18*** |
| γ4 | 0.1047 | 2.53** |
| γ5 | 0.0144 | 0.34 |
| γ6 | -0.0677 | -1.60 |
| γ7 | 0.0454 | 1.53 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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