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State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

13.27%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

13.59%

decreased by 0.16%

1 Month

14.56%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:59 PM UTC

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graph of State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.7657
5.84***
αARCH0.0965
8.72***
βGARCH0.8646
57.69***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.2058
-4.44***
γ20.3493
5.17***
γ3-0.2294
-5.18***
γ40.1047
2.53**
γ50.0144
0.34
γ6-0.0677
-1.60
γ70.0454
1.53

0.961

Persistence

17d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7657
5.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0965
8.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8646
57.69***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.2058
-4.44***
γ20.3493
5.17***
γ3-0.2294
-5.18***
γ40.1047
2.53**
γ50.0144
0.34
γ6-0.0677
-1.60
γ70.0454
1.53

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

17 days