V-Lab
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
14.58%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
14.80%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
15.47%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7645 | 5.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.0966 | 8.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8647 | 57.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2070 | -4.43*** |
| γ2 | 0.3509 | 5.15*** |
| γ3 | -0.2293 | -5.13*** |
| γ4 | 0.1034 | 2.47** |
| γ5 | 0.0157 | 0.37 |
| γ6 | -0.0674 | -1.58 |
| γ7 | 0.0441 | 1.48 |
0.961
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7645 | 5.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0966 | 8.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8647 | 57.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2070 | -4.43*** |
| γ2 | 0.3509 | 5.15*** |
| γ3 | -0.2293 | -5.13*** |
| γ4 | 0.1034 | 2.47** |
| γ5 | 0.0157 | 0.37 |
| γ6 | -0.0674 | -1.58 |
| γ7 | 0.0441 | 1.48 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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