State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
14.37%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
14.59%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
15.28%
increased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7641 | 5.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0978 | 8.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8635 | 57.34*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2093 | -4.42*** |
| γ2 | 0.3535 | 5.11*** |
| γ3 | -0.2280 | -4.99*** |
| γ4 | 0.0988 | 2.30** |
| γ5 | 0.0215 | 0.49 |
| γ6 | -0.0723 | -1.66* |
| γ7 | 0.0472 | 1.57 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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