State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
13.64%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
13.93%
increased by 0.14%
1 Month
14.80%
increased by 1.01%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7624 | 5.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0961 | 8.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8650 | 57.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2056 | -4.46*** |
| γ2 | 0.3494 | 5.19*** |
| γ3 | -0.2307 | -5.26*** |
| γ4 | 0.1073 | 2.62*** |
| γ5 | 0.0119 | 0.28 |
| γ6 | -0.0660 | -1.58 |
| γ7 | 0.0448 | 1.53 |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7624 | 5.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0961 | 8.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8650 | 57.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -0.2056 | -4.46*** |
| γ2 | 0.3494 | 5.19*** |
| γ3 | -0.2307 | -5.26*** |
| γ4 | 0.1073 | 2.62*** |
| γ5 | 0.0119 | 0.28 |
| γ6 | -0.0660 | -1.58 |
| γ7 | 0.0448 | 1.53 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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