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V-Lab

State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

14.37%

decreased by 0.15%

1 Week

14.59%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

15.28%

increased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.7641
5.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0978
8.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8635
57.34***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-0.2093
-4.42***
γ20.3535
5.11***
γ3-0.2280
-4.99***
γ40.0988
2.30**
γ50.0215
0.49
γ6-0.0723
-1.66*
γ70.0472
1.57

Persistence:

0.961

Half-life:

18 days