V-Lab
Neuberger Flexible Credit Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
3.63%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
3.60%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Month
3.58%
decreased by 0.77%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8726 | 7.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.2059 | 2.30** |
| βGARCH | 0.4444 | 2.41** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0385 | -0.73 |
0.650
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8726 | 7.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2059 | 2.30** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4444 | 2.41** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0385 | -0.73 |
Persistence:
0.650
Half-life:
2 days
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