V-Lab
Neuberger Flexible Credit Income ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
2.90%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
3.28%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
3.44%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 25, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9133 | 8.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.2891 | 2.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1913 | 1.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0228 | -0.42 |
0.480
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9133 | 8.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2891 | 2.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1913 | 1.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0228 | -0.42 |
Persistence:
0.480
Half-life:
1 days
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