iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
0.79%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
0.81%
increased by 0.00%
1 Month
0.87%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3320 | 6.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0885 | 5.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8379 | 30.30*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2742 | -1.67* |
| γ2 | 0.2509 | 1.09 |
| γ3 | 0.1608 | 1.26 |
| γ4 | 0.0125 | 0.09 |
| γ5 | -0.2609 | -1.64 |
| γ6 | -0.0977 | -0.67 |
| γ7 | 0.6406 | 5.31*** |
| γ8 | -0.5457 | -3.48*** |
| γ9 | -0.0157 | -0.10 |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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