V-Lab
iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
0.66%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
0.68%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
0.75%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3425 | 6.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0904 | 5.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8315 | 29.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2697 | -1.67* |
| γ2 | 0.2460 | 1.08 |
| γ3 | 0.1604 | 1.28 |
| γ4 | 0.0135 | 0.10 |
| γ5 | -0.2596 | -1.67* |
| γ6 | -0.1021 | -0.71 |
| γ7 | 0.6476 | 5.48*** |
| γ8 | -0.5583 | -3.67*** |
| γ9 | -0.0007 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.922
Half-life:
9 days
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