V-Lab
iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
0.48%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
0.50%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
0.56%
increased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4461 | 6.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0749 | 5.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8965 | 54.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1866 | -4.81*** |
| γ2 | 0.3955 | 6.30*** |
| γ3 | -0.3638 | -7.69*** |
| γ4 | 0.3321 | 7.03*** |
| γ5 | -0.2827 | -6.34*** |
0.971
Persistence24d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4461 | 6.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0749 | 5.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8965 | 54.49*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.1866 | -4.81*** |
| γ2 | 0.3955 | 6.30*** |
| γ3 | -0.3638 | -7.69*** |
| γ4 | 0.3321 | 7.03*** |
| γ5 | -0.2827 | -6.34*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
24 days
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