V-Lab
iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
0.43%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
0.45%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
0.48%
increased by 0.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4201 | 6.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0884 | 5.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8416 | 34.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2831 | -1.72* |
| γ2 | 0.2618 | 1.13 |
| γ3 | 0.1610 | 1.25 |
| γ4 | 0.0044 | 0.03 |
| γ5 | -0.2495 | -1.55 |
| γ6 | -0.1165 | -0.78 |
| γ7 | 0.7116 | 5.37*** |
| γ8 | -0.7828 | -4.16*** |
| γ9 | 0.2954 | 1.51 |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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