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V-Lab

iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

0.43%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

0.45%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

0.48%

increased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4201
6.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0884
5.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8416
34.72***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.2831
-1.72*
γ20.2618
1.13
γ30.1610
1.25
γ40.0044
0.03
γ5-0.2495
-1.55
γ6-0.1165
-0.78
γ70.7116
5.37***
γ8-0.7828
-4.16***
γ90.2954
1.51

Persistence:

0.930

Half-life:

10 days