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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

0.33%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.33%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

0.33%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2458 trading days (~9.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2458 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0566
1.82*
βGARCH0.9528
90.84***
γleverage-0.0193
-0.46

1.000

Persistence

2458d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0566
1.82*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9528
90.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0193
-0.46

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2458 days