iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
0.35%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
0.35%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
0.34%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 147 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~147 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | |
| αARCH | 0.0765 | 4.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9298 | 115.97*** |
| γleverage | -0.0220 | -0.99 |
0.995
Persistence147d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0765 | 4.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9298 | 115.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0220 | -0.99 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
147 days
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