iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
0.35%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Week
0.35%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
0.35%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~152 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | |
| αARCH | 0.0766 | 4.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9297 | 115.21*** |
| γleverage | -0.0218 | -0.97 |
0.995
Persistence152d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0766 | 4.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9297 | 115.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0218 | -0.97 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
152 days
Other iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on ETFs