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V-Lab

iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

0.73%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.73%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

0.73%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 75% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0486
9.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9618
574.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0208
-3.32***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days