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V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

0.30%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.30%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

0.30%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 158 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~158 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
αARCH0.0773
4.65***
βGARCH0.9291
114.84***
γleverage-0.0215
-0.96

0.996

Persistence

158d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0773
4.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9291
114.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0215
-0.96

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

158 days