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V-Lab

iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

0.46%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

0.46%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Month

0.45%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 153 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 90% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0768
15.68***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9369
484.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0364
-6.06***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

153 days