V-Lab
iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
0.46%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
0.46%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
0.45%
decreased by 0.01%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 11, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 153 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 90% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0768 | 15.68*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9369 | 484.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0364 | -6.06*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
153 days
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