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V-Lab

iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

0.35%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.35%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

0.35%

decreased by 0.01%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~152 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
αARCH0.0766
4.61***
βGARCH0.9297
115.21***
γleverage-0.0218
-0.97

0.995

Persistence

152d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0766
4.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9297
115.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0218
-0.97

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

152 days