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V-Lab

iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

0.35%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Week

0.35%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

0.34%

decreased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares 0-1 Year Treasury Bond ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 11, 2007 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 147 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~147 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
αARCH0.0765
4.63***
βGARCH0.9298
115.97***
γleverage-0.0220
-0.99

0.995

Persistence

147d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0765
4.63***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9298
115.97***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0220
-0.99

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

147 days