V-Lab
Innovatr EQ DF PR - 1 YR MAY GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
2.45%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Week
2.47%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Month
2.55%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 1, 2025 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0002 | 1.43 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9438 | 56.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1124 | 3.38*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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