Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
22.51%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
22.58%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Month
22.82%
decreased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:20 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0308 | 4.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.0247 | 1.61 |
| βGARCH | 0.8987 | 89.27*** |
| γleverage | 0.1283 | 4.70*** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0308 | 4.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0247 | 1.61 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8987 | 89.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1283 | 4.70*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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