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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

15.78%

increased by 0.99%

1 Week

16.07%

increased by 1.28%

1 Month

17.09%

increased by 2.30%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

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graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0307
4.60***
αARCH0.0248
1.62
βGARCH0.8989
89.40***
γleverage0.1278
4.68***

0.988

Persistence

56d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0307
4.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0248
1.62
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8989
89.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1278
4.68***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

56 days