V-Lab
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
15.78%
increased by 0.99%
1 Week
16.07%
increased by 1.28%
1 Month
17.09%
increased by 2.30%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 10, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0307 | 4.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0248 | 1.62 |
| βGARCH | 0.8989 | 89.40*** |
| γleverage | 0.1278 | 4.68*** |
0.988
Persistence56d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0307 | 4.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0248 | 1.62 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8989 | 89.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1278 | 4.68*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
56 days
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