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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

15.96%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

16.21%

increased by 0.18%

1 Month

17.10%

increased by 1.07%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 09:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 10, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0259
4.29***
αARCH0.0975
10.75***
βGARCH0.8926
99.31***

0.990

Persistence

70d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0259
4.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0975
10.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8926
99.31***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days