V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
17.70%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
18.32%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
20.36%
increased by 2.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 11:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0692 | 5.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0993 | 7.09*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8814 | 68.09*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0692 | 5.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0993 | 7.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8814 | 68.09*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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