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iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

20.61%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

20.89%

increased by 0.28%

1 Month

21.90%

increased by 1.29%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 50 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 50 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.73 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 50-day half-lifev = 8.73 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run3.4407
2.16**
αscore0.0822
8.56***
βpersistence0.9862
149.37***
νDF8.7280
1.17

0.986

Persistence

50d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

3.4407
2.16**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0822
8.56***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9862
149.37***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.7280
1.17

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days