V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
18.47%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
18.86%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
20.24%
increased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2862 | 8.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0802 | 34.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9845 | 561.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9651 | 5.09*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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