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iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

21.76%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Week

22.01%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Month

22.87%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 8.02 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.2753
2.28**
αARCH0.0801
8.58***
βGARCH0.9845
143.26***
νDF8.0247
1.27

0.984

Persistence

44d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.2753
2.28**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0801
8.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9845
143.26***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.0247
1.27

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days