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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

21.27%

increased by 0.75%

1 Week

21.54%

increased by 1.02%

1 Month

22.49%

increased by 1.97%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.2892
9.00***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0800
34.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9843
556.73***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9414
5.09***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days