V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
21.27%
increased by 0.75%
1 Week
21.54%
increased by 1.02%
1 Month
22.49%
increased by 1.97%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2892 | 9.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0800 | 34.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9843 | 556.73*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9414 | 5.09*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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