iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026
1 Day
21.76%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Week
22.01%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
22.87%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 8.02 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.2753 | 2.28** |
| αARCH | 0.0801 | 8.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9845 | 143.26*** |
| νDF | 8.0247 | 1.27 |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2753 | 2.28** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0801 | 8.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9845 | 143.26*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.0247 | 1.27 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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