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iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

21.01%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Week

21.29%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Month

22.27%

increased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC

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graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 7.99 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.2788
2.25**
αARCH0.0801
8.57***
βGARCH0.9845
141.51***
νDF7.9901
1.27

0.984

Persistence

44d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.2788
2.25**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0801
8.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9845
141.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9901
1.27

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days