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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

18.47%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

18.86%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

20.24%

increased by 1.28%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.2862
8.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0802
34.22***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9845
561.59***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9651
5.09***

Persistence:

0.984

Half-life:

44 days