V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
21.01%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
21.29%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
22.27%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 44 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 44 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 44-day half-lifev = 7.99 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.2788 | 2.25** |
| αARCH | 0.0801 | 8.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9845 | 141.51*** |
| νDF | 7.9901 | 1.27 |
0.984
Persistence44d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2788 | 2.25** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0801 | 8.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9845 | 141.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9901 | 1.27 |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
44 days
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