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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

16.94%

decreased by 0.76%

1 Week

17.41%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

19.04%

increased by 1.34%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 45-day half-lifev = 7.96 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.2809
2.23**
αARCH0.0800
8.57***
βGARCH0.9846
140.69***
νDF7.9592
1.27

0.985

Persistence

45d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.2809
2.23**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0800
8.57***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9846
140.69***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9592
1.27

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

45 days