V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
19.73%
increased by 1.29%
1 Week
20.22%
increased by 1.78%
1 Month
21.85%
increased by 3.41%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0723 | 18.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0215 | 8.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8925 | 349.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1301 | 16.95*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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