V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
21.10%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
21.51%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
22.86%
increased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0721 | 18.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0215 | 8.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8932 | 351.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1284 | 16.86*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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