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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

19.45%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

19.96%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

21.64%

increased by 1.92%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0721
18.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0215
8.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8925
349.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1300
16.94***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days