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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

17.34%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

17.99%

increased by 0.20%

1 Month

20.11%

increased by 2.32%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0717
4.51***
αARCH0.0214
2.02**
βGARCH0.8927
87.58***
γleverage0.1299
4.25***

0.979

Persistence

33d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0717
4.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0214
2.02**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8927
87.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1299
4.25***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days