V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026
1 Day
18.90%
increased by 0.02%
1 Week
19.44%
increased by 0.56%
1 Month
21.22%
increased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 14, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0715 | 4.51*** |
| αARCH | 0.0214 | 2.02** |
| βGARCH | 0.8929 | 87.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.1298 | 4.25*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0715 | 4.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0214 | 2.02** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8929 | 87.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1298 | 4.25*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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