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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

19.73%

increased by 1.29%

1 Week

20.22%

increased by 1.78%

1 Month

21.85%

increased by 3.41%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0723
18.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0215
8.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8925
349.03***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1301
16.95***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days