iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 27th, 2026
1 Day
17.23%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
17.89%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
20.01%
increased by 2.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 26, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0711 | 4.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.0214 | 2.02** |
| βGARCH | 0.8930 | 87.80*** |
| γleverage | 0.1297 | 4.27*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0711 | 4.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0214 | 2.02** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8930 | 87.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1297 | 4.27*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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