V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
19.45%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
19.96%
increased by 0.24%
1 Month
21.64%
increased by 1.92%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0721 | 18.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0215 | 8.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8925 | 349.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1300 | 16.94*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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