V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
20.93%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
21.51%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
23.11%
increased by 1.41%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 09:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7999 | 5.50*** |
| αARCH | 0.1047 | 7.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8438 | 47.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1080 | -4.48*** |
| γ2 | 0.1677 | 4.93*** |
| γ3 | -0.1053 | -4.94*** |
| γ4 | 0.0845 | 4.34*** |
| γ5 | -0.0503 | -2.72*** |
| γ6 | 0.0100 | 0.62 |
0.949
Persistence13d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7999 | 5.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1047 | 7.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8438 | 47.94*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1080 | -4.48*** |
| γ2 | 0.1677 | 4.93*** |
| γ3 | -0.1053 | -4.94*** |
| γ4 | 0.0845 | 4.34*** |
| γ5 | -0.0503 | -2.72*** |
| γ6 | 0.0100 | 0.62 |
Persistence:
0.949
Half-life:
13 days
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