V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
22.00%
increased by 0.45%
1 Week
22.55%
increased by 1.00%
1 Month
24.04%
increased by 2.49%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7938 | 5.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1053 | 7.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8424 | 47.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1099 | -4.52*** |
| γ2 | 0.1705 | 4.97*** |
| γ3 | -0.1065 | -4.92*** |
| γ4 | 0.0839 | 4.25*** |
| γ5 | -0.0470 | -2.46** |
| γ6 | 0.0060 | 0.35 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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