V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
19.31%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
20.14%
increased by 0.44%
1 Month
22.36%
increased by 2.66%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7965 | 5.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1050 | 7.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8432 | 47.69*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1092 | -4.50*** |
| γ2 | 0.1694 | 4.95*** |
| γ3 | -0.1062 | -4.93*** |
| γ4 | 0.0844 | 4.29*** |
| γ5 | -0.0490 | -2.58*** |
| γ6 | 0.0083 | 0.50 |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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