V-Lab
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.44%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
19.00%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
20.93%
increased by 2.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.35 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0518 | 23.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0829 | 30.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9039 | 349.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5815 | 20.16*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3488 | 35.64*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
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