Skip to main content
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

18.44%

decreased by 0.43%

1 Week

19.00%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

20.93%

increased by 2.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.35 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0518
23.44***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0829
30.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9039
349.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5815
20.16***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.3488
35.64***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

32 days