V-Lab
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 11th, 2026
1 Day
14.57%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Week
14.80%
increased by 0.02%
1 Month
15.59%
increased by 0.81%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 10, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.16 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0329 | 30.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0929 | 29.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8948 | 286.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6509 | 22.61*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1610 | 35.98*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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