V-Lab
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
16.42%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
16.70%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Month
17.55%
increased by 0.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0188 | 4.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8462 | 195.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1592 | 30.77*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0096 | 7.32*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0339 | 6.37*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9574 | 151.95*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
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