V-Lab
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
18.27%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
18.58%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Month
19.54%
increased by 0.41%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0196 | 5.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8454 | 193.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1572 | 30.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0104 | 6.95*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0387 | 6.22*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9521 | 130.10*** |
Persistence:
0.944
Half-life:
12 days
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