V-Lab
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.22%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
15.68%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
17.04%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0189 | 4.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8465 | 195.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1586 | 30.73*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0097 | 7.30*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0342 | 6.37*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9570 | 150.14*** |
Persistence:
0.945
Half-life:
12 days
Other State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs