Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

15.54%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

16.09%

increased by 0.47%

1 Month

17.41%

increased by 1.79%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:09 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.0198
1.31
βGARCH0.8460
51.34***
γleverage0.1560
6.78***
λ₁tau intercept0.0100
1.08
λ₂forecast adj.0.0361
1.30
λ₃tau persistence0.9549
27.52***

0.944

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0198
1.31
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8460
51.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1560
6.78***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0100
1.08
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0361
1.30
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9549
27.52***

Persistence:

0.944

Half-life:

12 days