State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
19.42%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Week
19.38%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Month
19.21%
decreased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 10:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 112% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 112% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0251 | 6.93*** |
| αARCH | 0.1096 | 7.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8099 | 73.63*** |
| γleverage | 0.1225 | 4.43*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0251 | 6.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1096 | 7.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8099 | 73.63*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1225 | 4.43*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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