V-Lab
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
13.55%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
13.79%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
14.61%
increased by 0.50%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0298 | 20.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0246 | 7.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8823 | 286.17*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1417 | 17.91*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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