V-Lab
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
16.27%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
16.37%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
16.69%
decreased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 10:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 22, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0299 | 20.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0244 | 7.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8820 | 285.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1424 | 17.95*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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