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State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

13.94%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

14.16%

increased by 0.25%

1 Month

14.89%

increased by 0.98%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:07 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 22, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0294
5.21***
αARCH0.0260
2.11**
βGARCH0.8833
72.66***
γleverage0.1373
4.35***

0.978

Persistence

31d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0294
5.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0260
2.11**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8833
72.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1373
4.35***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

31 days