iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
23.56%
increased by 4.87%
1 Week
23.63%
increased by 4.94%
1 Month
23.91%
increased by 5.22%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~109 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0209 | 3.75*** |
| αARCH | 0.0248 | 3.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9181 | 145.83*** |
| γleverage | 0.1014 | 4.99*** |
0.994
Persistence109d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0209 | 3.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0248 | 3.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9181 | 145.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1014 | 4.99*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
109 days
Other iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on ETFs