Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

15.80%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Week

16.03%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

16.88%

increased by 0.57%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~108 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0209
3.76***
αARCH0.0249
3.32***
βGARCH0.9183
146.04***
γleverage0.1008
4.97***

0.994

Persistence

108d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0209
3.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0249
3.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9183
146.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1008
4.97***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

108 days