iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
15.80%
decreased by 0.51%
1 Week
16.03%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Month
16.88%
increased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~108 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0209 | 3.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0249 | 3.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9183 | 146.04*** |
| γleverage | 0.1008 | 4.97*** |
0.994
Persistence108d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0209 | 3.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0249 | 3.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9183 | 146.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1008 | 4.97*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
108 days
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