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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

14.81%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Week

15.07%

decreased by 0.12%

1 Month

16.03%

increased by 0.84%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0210
15.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0250
13.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9178
580.91***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1017
19.93***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

110 days