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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

18.04%

increased by 1.68%

1 Week

18.22%

increased by 1.86%

1 Month

18.88%

increased by 2.52%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:47 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~109 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0210
3.76***
αARCH0.0248
3.31***
βGARCH0.9180
145.58***
γleverage0.1017
4.99***

0.994

Persistence

109d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0210
3.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0248
3.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9180
145.58***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1017
4.99***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

109 days