V-Lab
iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
14.30%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
14.57%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
15.58%
increased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0209 | 3.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0248 | 3.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9181 | 145.61*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1017 | 5.00*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
110 days
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