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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

16.57%

decreased by 0.46%

1 Week

16.78%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Month

17.57%

increased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:33 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 110 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0208
14.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0247
13.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9181
581.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1018
19.98***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

110 days