V-Lab
iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
18.04%
increased by 1.68%
1 Week
18.22%
increased by 1.86%
1 Month
18.88%
increased by 2.52%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 02:47 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~109 daysLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0210 | 3.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0248 | 3.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9180 | 145.58*** |
| γleverage | 0.1017 | 4.99*** |
0.994
Persistence109d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0210 | 3.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0248 | 3.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9180 | 145.58*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1017 | 4.99*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
109 days
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