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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

18.69%

increased by 2.53%

1 Week

18.83%

increased by 2.67%

1 Month

19.33%

increased by 3.17%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 1, 1996 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~95 daysv = 8.62 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.8014
1.64
αscore0.0869
10.78***
βpersistence0.9927
217.22***
νDF8.6230
1.69*

0.993

Persistence

95d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.8014
1.64
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0869
10.78***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9927
217.22***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6230
1.69*

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

95 days