V-Lab
iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
16.41%
increased by 0.08%
1 Week
16.59%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
17.24%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~94 daysv = 7.18 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.6476 | 1.60 |
| αARCH | 0.0796 | 11.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9927 | 221.13*** |
| νDF | 7.1841 | 2.10** |
0.993
Persistence94d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6476 | 1.60 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0796 | 11.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9927 | 221.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1841 | 2.10** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
94 days
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