V-Lab
iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
17.74%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Week
17.89%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
18.43%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 94 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6593 | 6.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0797 | 46.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9927 | 883.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.1702 | 8.45*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
94 days
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