iShares MSCI Singapore Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.69%
1 Week
18.83%
1 Month
19.33%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 1, 1996 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 95 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.8014 | 1.64 |
| αscore | 0.0869 | 10.78*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9927 | 217.22*** |
| νDF | 8.6230 | 1.69* |
0.993
Persistence95d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.8014 | 1.64 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0869 | 10.78*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9927 | 217.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6230 | 1.69* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
95 days
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