V-Lab
UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
13.39%
decreased by 0.41%
1 Week
13.63%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
14.41%
increased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 6.96 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2018 | 1.20 |
| αARCH | 0.0537 | 1.94* |
| βGARCH | 0.9729 | 56.06*** |
| νDF | 6.9610 | 0.34 |
0.973
Persistence25d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2018 | 1.20 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0537 | 1.94* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9729 | 56.06*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9610 | 0.34 |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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