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UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

1 Day

17.93%

increased by 1.03%

1 Week

17.82%

increased by 0.92%

1 Month

17.63%

increased by 0.73%

Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/09/2024

to

11/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2022 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 7.74 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.2216
3.35***
αscore0.1128
1.95*
βpersistence0.8696
20.00***
νDF7.7365
0.36

0.870

Persistence

5d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.2216
3.35***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1128
1.95*
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.8696
20.00***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.7365
0.36

Persistence:

0.870

Half-life:

5 days