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UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

13.39%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

13.63%

decreased by 0.17%

1 Month

14.41%

increased by 0.61%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 10:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2022 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 25 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 25 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.96 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 25-day half-lifev = 6.96 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2018
1.20
αARCH0.0537
1.94*
βGARCH0.9729
56.06***
νDF6.9610
0.34

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2018
1.20
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0537
1.94*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9729
56.06***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.9610
0.34

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days