UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
17.93%
increased by 1.03%
1 Week
17.82%
increased by 0.92%
1 Month
17.63%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:50 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2022 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-lifev = 7.74 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.2216 | 3.35*** |
| αscore | 0.1128 | 1.95* |
| βpersistence | 0.8696 | 20.00*** |
| νDF | 7.7365 | 0.36 |
0.870
Persistence5d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.2216 | 3.35*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1128 | 1.95* |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.8696 | 20.00*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.7365 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.870
Half-life:
5 days
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