V-Lab
UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
20.02%
increased by 2.07%
1 Week
19.87%
increased by 1.92%
1 Month
19.40%
increased by 1.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 21 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 21 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 21-day half-lifev = 6.92 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2214 | 1.27 |
| αARCH | 0.0561 | 1.83* |
| βGARCH | 0.9681 | 48.48*** |
| νDF | 6.9210 | 0.33 |
0.968
Persistence21d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2214 | 1.27 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0561 | 1.83* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9681 | 48.48*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.9210 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
0.968
Half-life:
21 days
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