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V-Lab

UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

13.62%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

14.52%

increased by 0.31%

1 Month

16.17%

increased by 1.96%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 09:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2022 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.34 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2227
11.41***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1032
7.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8843
82.30***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.3368
1.42

Persistence:

0.884

Half-life:

6 days