V-Lab
UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
14.22%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
15.06%
increased by 0.07%
1 Month
16.51%
increased by 1.52%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2305 | 12.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1115 | 7.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8705 | 73.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.3670 | 1.48 |
Persistence:
0.871
Half-life:
5 days
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