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V-Lab

UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

14.22%

decreased by 0.77%

1 Week

15.06%

increased by 0.07%

1 Month

16.51%

increased by 1.52%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2022 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.37 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2305
12.24***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1115
7.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8705
73.58***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.3670
1.48

Persistence:

0.871

Half-life:

5 days