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UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

15.12%

increased by 0.58%

1 Week

15.26%

increased by 0.72%

1 Month

15.70%

increased by 1.16%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2022 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.84 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-lifev = 6.84 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1992
1.22
αARCH0.0535
1.90*
βGARCH0.9710
50.45***
νDF6.8446
0.33

0.971

Persistence

24d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1992
1.22
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0535
1.90*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9710
50.45***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.8446
0.33

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

24 days