Skip to main content
V-Lab

UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

13.07%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

14.11%

increased by 0.57%

1 Month

15.98%

increased by 2.44%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:34 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2022 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 6 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 6 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2158
11.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1049
7.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8832
80.82***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2312
1.47

Persistence:

0.883

Half-life:

6 days