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V-Lab

UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

12.62%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

13.35%

increased by 0.67%

1 Month

14.16%

increased by 1.48%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of UPAR Ultra Risk Parity ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2022 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7102
26.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1134
5.97***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.3261
0.11
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.6618
0.11
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.767

Half-life:

3 days