V-Lab
Innovator Growth-100 Dual Directional 5 Buffer ETF - Quarterly MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
4.25%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
181,696.04%
increased by 181,691.62%
1 Month
7,332,433,702,393,770,000,000,000.00%
increased by 7,332,433,702,393,770,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 02:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0903 | 1.39 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8562 | 573.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0903 | -1.39 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0678 | 1.45 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.901
Half-life:
7 days
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