V-Lab
iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
14.46%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
15.15%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
16.18%
increased by 1.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 10:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0245 | 8.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8571 | 249.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1140 | 27.60*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2766 | 6.06*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8487 | 13.92*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
Other iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs