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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

14.80%

increased by 0.09%

1 Week

14.88%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

15.90%

increased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:31 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0246
8.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8574
250.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1137
27.59***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2760
6.08***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8487
13.98***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days