V-Lab
iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
14.80%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
14.88%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
15.90%
increased by 1.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 02:31 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0246 | 8.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8574 | 250.26*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1137 | 27.59*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2760 | 6.08*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8487 | 13.98*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
Other iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs