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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026

1 Day

15.87%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

16.14%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

16.39%

increased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC

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graph of iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow81
αARCH0.0244
1.87*
βGARCH0.8579
64.01***
γleverage0.1134
6.52***
λ₁tau intercept0.2752
2.80***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8483
10.82***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.939

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0244
1.87*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8579
64.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1134
6.52***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2752
2.80***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8483
10.82***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days