V-Lab
iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 29th, 2026
1 Day
15.87%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
16.14%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
16.39%
increased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.0244 | 1.87* |
| βGARCH | 0.8579 | 64.01*** |
| γleverage | 0.1134 | 6.52*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2752 | 2.80*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8483 | 10.82*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0244 | 1.87* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8579 | 64.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1134 | 6.52*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2752 | 2.80*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8483 | 10.82*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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