V-Lab
iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
12.87%
increased by 0.15%
1 Week
13.55%
increased by 0.83%
1 Month
15.27%
increased by 2.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 10:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.0243 | 1.86* |
| βGARCH | 0.8576 | 63.89*** |
| γleverage | 0.1141 | 6.54*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.2755 | 2.80*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8486 | 10.83*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0243 | 1.86* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8576 | 63.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1141 | 6.54*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.2755 | 2.80*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8486 | 10.83*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
Other iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF Analyses
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on ETFs