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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

15.60%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

15.89%

increased by 0.19%

1 Month

16.29%

increased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow81
αARCH0.0244
1.87*
βGARCH0.8577
63.87***
γleverage0.1135
6.54***
λ₁tau intercept0.2749
2.80***
λ₂forecast adj.0.8484
10.83***
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.939

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

81
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0244
1.87*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8577
63.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1135
6.54***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.2749
2.80***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.8484
10.83***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.939

Half-life:

11 days