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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026

1 Day

14.77%

increased by 0.24%

1 Week

15.00%

increased by 0.47%

1 Month

15.82%

increased by 1.29%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 11:53 PM UTC

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graph of iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-lifev = 6.58 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1367
1.85*
αARCH0.0773
9.79***
βGARCH0.9893
174.51***
νDF6.5821
2.16**

0.989

Persistence

65d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1367
1.85*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0773
9.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9893
174.51***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5821
2.16**

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

65 days