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iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 20th, 2026

1 Day

16.75%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Week

16.92%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Month

17.51%

increased by 0.37%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 19, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/19/2024

to

10/19/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1996 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 64-day half-lifev = 6.60 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1378
1.86*
αARCH0.0774
9.75***
βGARCH0.9892
174.16***
νDF6.5966
2.15**

0.989

Persistence

64d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1378
1.86*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0774
9.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9892
174.16***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5966
2.15**

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days