V-Lab
iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 28th, 2026
1 Day
14.77%
increased by 0.24%
1 Week
15.00%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
15.82%
increased by 1.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 11:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 65 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 65 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 65-day half-lifev = 6.58 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1367 | 1.85* |
| αARCH | 0.0773 | 9.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9893 | 174.51*** |
| νDF | 6.5821 | 2.16** |
0.989
Persistence65d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1367 | 1.85* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0773 | 9.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9893 | 174.51*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5821 | 2.16** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
65 days
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