V-Lab
iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
14.95%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
15.18%
increased by 0.06%
1 Month
15.99%
increased by 0.87%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 02:23 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.57 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1510 | 7.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0776 | 39.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9892 | 691.78*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.5718 | 8.64*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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