iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 10th, 2026
1 Day
19.95%
1 Week
20.04%
1 Month
20.37%
Analysis last updated: Monday, November 9, 2026 at 10:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1996 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 74 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.3439 | 1.78* |
| αscore | 0.0837 | 9.46*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9907 | 187.77*** |
| νDF | 7.9664 | 1.68* |
0.991
Persistence74d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.3439 | 1.78* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0837 | 9.46*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9907 | 187.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9664 | 1.68* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
74 days
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