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V-Lab

iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

15.06%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

15.28%

decreased by 0.51%

1 Month

16.07%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of iShares MSCI Belgium Capped ETF GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 17, 1996 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 64 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 64 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.58 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1472
7.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0775
39.15***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9893
695.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.5792
8.65***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

64 days